Media”Pros”
The game of soccer can be made to seem very complex. How many people can really specify a”West Coast offense?” How many can accurately recognize a”zone blitz,” or a”nickel” or”dime” defense?
NFL analysts at the media have fast answers to all these questions. They’ve a listing of each player and his record at their fingertips. They’ve staff-written replicate on hand to explain all types of sport plans. They have formidable arrays of statistics to cover any circumstance.
Because of the networking, pro football is a game of virtually no hidden information. But, it is one thing to describe an event that is already over. It is something different entirely to attempt and predict that which has yet to occur.
When the press try to predict game results, they have a tendency to perform poorly. To give just a couple of examples from New York City, where I live, each Friday eleven New York Post authors create predictions on NFL games against the spread. I’ve never seen these handicappers consistently select the 52.4% winners needed to beat the 11-to-10 chances sports bettors should give. In fact, virtually every year for the last twenty years that the consensus in the Post has finished under 50 percent.
One of those Post handicappers often mentions trends in his handicapping evaluation –how groups do on grass or turf, as favorites or underdogs, etc.. But trends are mostly useless these days because teams change so fast as a result of free agency. What does it matter whether a staff is 12-and-4 on road turf throughout the last five years if only three of its players have been there that long?
On the radio, WFAN commentators also make predictions every Friday. However they too have rarely picked the 52.4 percent winners necessary to conquer the 11-to-10. To cover this, they frequently talk about their records in regard to the .500 mark. The vig seems to not exist in the world of WFAN.
And on television, ESPN’s Hank Goldberg has beaten the 11-to-10 in only one of the seven years he has been there.
From personal experience, I’ve discovered that most TV manufacturers and newspaper editors view sports as entertainment instead of serious journalism. That is why you, as a serious handicapper, ought to take media predictions with a big grain of salt.
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