Hello informed sports investors, now I’m going to unveil an interesting hockey betting strategy that I call”The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. It essentially answers the intuitive question I asked myself a while ago:
Considering the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, should we bet on teams that are currently on a losing streak confronting a team riding a winning streak (in the NHL)?
Let us see if we could gain from this proposal!
1. Basic Exploration
First of all, you need to note that the results presented in this article include a dataset containing information about most of NHL games in the nine (9) seasons covering the 2007/2008 into 2015/2016 period.
Let us kick this off study with a very straightforward analysis: we’re betting $1 on each team coming off at least one loss playing against a team coming off at least one win. Here are the results:
Record = 2533-2767 (win percentage = 47.8percent )
Profit = -$202.16 (ROI = Return On Investment = -3.8percent )
To place these numbers in perspective, just how much money could we have lost or won from using the contrary approach (i.e. betting on teams coming off at least win confronting a group coming off at least one loss)? The solution is: -$181.43 (-3.4%). As you can see, the initial suggested approach isn’t doing any better than the other plan. We aren’t off to a good beginning, but please hang because the sun is going to glow!
From today on, I’ll use chances with”reduced juice”. In my dataset, when two teams were equally matched the juice was 20 cents (such as -110 versus -110 in American format, which is the equivalent of 1.91 lines in decimal format). That is not representative of the fact as you can obtain far greater chances by simply playing with sportsbooks like Pinnacle or even 5Dimes. Furthermore, in case you have an account with numerous bookies you may get even better chances by searching for the ideal line. Consequently, I have adjusted chances in my dataset so we are currently becoming -105 lines (1.95 in chronological arrangement ) when the two teams are prone to win the game.
With decreased juice, the gain numbers above become -$100.95 (-1.9%) when gambling the team on a losing streak versus -$89.98 (-1.7%) when gambling the team on a winning streak.
2. Length of this Winning and Losing Streaks
All right, let us now refine our analysis to find out whether we could find a winning strategy. But I’d like to introduce a little bit of notation to simplify the writing for the remainder of this report:
W / number of matches from the winning streak L = number of games from the losing streak Teams W = teams coming off at least one win
Teams L = groups coming at least one loss Let’s study the performance of the suggested strategy both as a part of”w” and”l”. Ideally, we’d love to view our winnings grow as both of these variables go up. In plain English, are we making more money when backing a team on a big losing streak facing a group on a big winning streak?
Let’s start by focusing exclusively on the performance of the suggested strategy as a role of”w”, the number of consecutive wins by the group We’re gambling against, also known as”evaporating”
