Selecting the winner of the Kentucky Derby is simple ? Just select the favorite and then after the two most exciting moments in sports just go cash your tickets.
That strategy has worked six years in a row, beginning with Orb at 2013, that returned $12.80 for a $2 win wager, and including last year at which Justify got the job done as the favorite, returning his backers $7.80. What the heck is happening?
From 2005 until 2012 the typical win mutual was $41, and we had two mad winners who paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) in 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) in 2009.
This year Game Winner is the 9-2 morning line favorite after the scrape of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee is the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, leading to him winning the Eclipse Award for high juvenile of 2018. He has lost both of his starts this year, but put in solid efforts in runner up finishes.
He is a logical favourite but must cope with two of his stablemates that both have solid credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They’re the co-second options on the morning line at 5-1.
Yes, Hall of fame Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the past four years will likely be sending out the top three betting choices in the race. It will be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a trainer has had the three betting choices.
That is a lot of firepower for one barn and which makes it only a little less probable a longshot is going to win this season’s edition.
But they still have to run the race. About Kentucky Oaks Day, we watched the winner juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat at odds of 1-5 in the Edgewood (G3).
Thus, let us look for three Derby longshots that May Have a chance to be in the hunt when they come in the stretch under the Twin Spires on Saturday day:
Tacitus (8-1)
Tacitus is coming off a good looking win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old campaign by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden over a wet track and has a solid off course pedigree. He’s by Tapit and the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who made $2.7 million and was the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who hasn’t had some success in the Derby (0 for 8, the ideal finish with Hofburg last year (seventh). The Wood hasn’t been a successful race over the previous 15 decades or so. We must go back to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Derby winner to prep there. Overall 20 Derby winners utilized the Wood as a prep. The colt looks as if he has some upside and should get a fantastic trip sitting mid pack with a perfect post.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb from the slop. I have liked this colt since his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to fire in the Mucho Macho Man in his three-year-old introduction, checking in fourth, also bounced back with a smart triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 9-1.
Last in the Florida Derby (G1) that he was bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the pack behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He needs pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will get this guy close enough he will have an effect late.
Spinoff (30-1)
Trained by Todd Pletcher who has two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming at 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying beneath the radar. He was third in the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has put in two impressive efforts this season. He gathered first-level allowance firm by 11 3/4 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. He then made his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he monitored the early pace, took over the direct heading for home but got run down By My Standards. He is bred to like a wet track and is going to be a major cost. The outside post is not ideal, but he has sufficient tactical speed to be in the mix .
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark along with his entire card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.
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