This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some adequate contests for us with this particular Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that last contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 50 or so entries at that $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic quantity of play into money games. With that said, let us get to some plays I like too as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the background, in my view. I believe he’ll be the fighter anywhere this battle moves, and he must predominate. I like locking that triumph in my money match and I think he has a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to be popular in tournaments so in the event that you would like to fade the ownership there and attempt to be contrarian, I would definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so he can last all 3 rounds and if he can then Luque might only score in the 80s and that won’t win any GPPs. However, we could work with an ~80-point win in cash games because we just need to conquer half the area unlike the tournaments.
GPP play of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the odds. A little more than a week ago he was a -255 favored and that is what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s only -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou in his 7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou to be the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he will kill off near half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his ownership to really go down the longer his betting line decreases and that is what makes him a great GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, therefore I do not care for him in money game, but for GPPs we want boom or float to attempt to get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He is $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he is just a +125 underdog. I believe he’s a good chance of winning this fight and I am choosing him to get his hand raised. I expect this to be an extremely close fight, but I believe Fili is going to be the fighter striking at the greater rate and that is precisely what I think gets it done for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili having 100+ point upside down but we don’t really need that in his $7.4k price label. I think he has a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in all formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her about the $20k lineup in her salary. I enjoy the 9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings using their grappling-based game plans. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but that is because she did use grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this game because I think Evans-Smith has got the edge on the ground and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she’s going to have to get it done on the feet and I really don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to use her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it’ll create your lineup , but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
