This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate contests for us with this particular Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, and there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into money games. With that said, let’s get to some plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the background, in my view. I think he will be the fighter anywhere this fight goes, and he must dominate. I like locking that win in my money game and I think he has a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to be popular in tournaments so in the event that you would like to fade the possession there and attempt to be contrarian, I’d definitely want some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is tough so that he can continue all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque could score in the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. But, we could work with an ~80-point win in money games since we just have to beat half the area unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the odds. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that is what resulted in his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and the worth is on Ngannou in his 7.2k price label. I anticipate Ngannou to be the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off close to half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his possession to really go down the more his gambling line decreases and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, therefore I do not care for him as much in cash game, however for GPPs we need boom or float to try and reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He is $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he is only a +125 underdog. I believe he’s a fantastic shot of winning this fight and I am choosing him to receive his hands raised. I expect this to be a very close fight, but I think Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the greater pace and that’s what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside down but we don’t really require that in his $7.4k price label. I think he has a great shot at getting at least 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her on the $20k lineup in her wages. I enjoy the 9k range a great deal greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC introduction, but that is because she did utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this game because I presume Evans-Smith has the edge on the floor and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she is going to have to get it done on the toes and I really don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it’ll make your lineup contrarian, but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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